Fertility & birth rates in Rwanda and South Africa

Fertility rate in Rwanda vs South Africa chart

According to the latest available data on birth rates, the fertility rate in Rwanda was 3.7 children per woman in 2023, compared to 2.22 in South Africa in 2023. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 children per woman.

Check Rwanda vs South Africa population clock for a dynamic visualization of the changing population.

The chart below showcases historical changes in the birth rates.

Table

Year	Fertility rate
	Rwanda	South Africa
1960	8.28	6.11
1961	8.28	6.08
1962	8.27	6.05
1963	8.27	6.01
1964	8.27	5.96
1965	8.25	5.89
1966	8.23	5.91
1967	8.21	5.85
1968	8.19	5.78
1969	8.18	5.72
1970	8.15	5.63
1971	8.09	5.57
1972	8.09	5.49
1973	8.09	5.41
1974	8.1	5.3
1975	8.1	5.19
1976	8.12	5.07
1977	8.14	4.94
1978	8.16	4.85
1979	8.13	4.82
1980	8.12	4.78
1981	8.1	4.71
1982	8.06	4.7
1983	8	4.63
1984	7.91	4.57
1985	7.79	4.5
1986	7.61	4.41
1987	7.43	4.35
1988	7.23	4.18
1989	7.03	3.98
1990	6.8	3.72
1991	6.62	3.62
1992	6.54	3.48
1993	6.48	3.37
1994	6.42	3.26
1995	6.35	3.17
1996	6.29	2.99
1997	6.24	2.73
1998	6.17	2.63
1999	6.06	2.56
2000	5.97	2.41
2001	5.89	2.37
2002	5.82	2.32
2003	5.74	2.36
2004	5.64	2.44
2005	5.5	2.51
2006	5.34	2.55
2007	5.14	2.55
2008	4.92	2.68
2009	4.71	2.5
2010	4.52	2.44
2011	4.33	2.44
2012	4.2	2.45
2013	4.14	2.43
2014	4.12	2.42
2015	4.11	2.36
2016	4.11	2.26
2017	4.08	2.28
2018	4.05	2.27
2019	3.99	2.26
2020	3.91	2.26
2021	3.84	2.25
2022	3.78	2.23
2023	3.7	2.22
2024	3.64	2.21
2025	3.59	2.19
2026	3.54	2.17
2027	3.49	2.15
2028	3.43	2.13
2029	3.38	2.12
2030	3.33	2.1
2031	3.28	2.09
2032	3.24	2.07
2033	3.19	2.06
2034	3.15	2.05
2035	3.11	2.04
2036	3.07	2.03
2037	3.03	2.02
2038	2.99	2
2039	2.95	1.99
2040	2.92	1.98
2041	2.89	1.98
2042	2.85	1.97
2043	2.81	1.96
2044	2.78	1.95
2045	2.75	1.94
2046	2.72	1.93
2047	2.69	1.92
2048	2.67	1.91
2049	2.64	1.9
2050	2.61	1.89

Children 0-14 years as share of population

Table

Year	Share of people 0-14 years old
	Rwanda	South Africa
1960	49.2%	42.1%
1961	49.7%	42.1%
1962	50.2%	42.1%
1963	50.6%	42.1%
1964	50.8%	42.1%
1965	50.6%	42.1%
1966	50.2%	42.1%
1967	49.7%	42.2%
1968	49.2%	42.2%
1969	48.7%	42.2%
1970	48.2%	42.3%
1971	47.9%	42.2%
1972	47.5%	42.2%
1973	47.2%	42.1%
1974	46.9%	42%
1975	46.6%	41.9%
1976	46.4%	41.8%
1977	46.4%	41.7%
1978	46.4%	41.5%
1979	46.5%	41.3%
1980	46.8%	40.9%
1981	47.1%	40.5%
1982	47.4%	40.1%
1983	47.7%	39.8%
1984	48.1%	39.5%
1985	48.3%	39.2%
1986	48.6%	38.9%
1987	48.8%	38.7%
1988	48.9%	38.4%
1989	48.9%	38.1%
1990	49%	37.7%
1991	48.9%	37.5%
1992	48.7%	37.6%
1993	48.4%	37.3%
1994	50.1%	37.2%
1995	52.4%	37.5%
1996	51.4%	37.5%
1997	50.5%	37.2%
1998	49.2%	36.5%
1999	47.8%	35.7%
2000	46.4%	34.9%
2001	45.2%	34%
2002	44.3%	33.2%
2003	43.7%	32.3%
2004	43.3%	31.6%
2005	43.1%	31.1%
2006	42.9%	30.6%
2007	42.9%	30.2%
2008	42.8%	29.9%
2009	42.6%	29.7%
2010	42.4%	29.4%
2011	42.2%	29.1%
2012	41.9%	28.9%
2013	41.7%	28.7%
2014	41.4%	28.5%
2015	41.1%	28.3%
2016	40.9%	28.3%
2017	40.5%	28.3%
2018	40.1%	27.9%
2019	39.7%	27.4%
2020	39.2%	27%
2021	38.6%	26.6%
2022	38.2%	26.3%
2023	37.7%	26.1%
2024	37.4%	25.9%
2025	37%	25.7%
2026	36.7%	25.6%
2027	36.4%	25.4%
2028	36%	25.3%
2029	35.7%	25.2%
2030	35.4%	25.2%
2031	35%	25.1%
2032	34.7%	25%
2033	34.4%	24.8%
2034	34.1%	24.5%
2035	33.7%	24.3%
2036	33.4%	23.9%
2037	33.1%	23.6%
2038	32.9%	23.4%
2039	32.6%	23.1%
2040	32.3%	22.9%
2041	32%	22.7%
2042	31.7%	22.5%
2043	31.4%	22.4%
2044	31.1%	22.2%
2045	30.8%	22.1%
2046	30.5%	21.9%
2047	30.2%	21.8%
2048	29.9%	21.7%
2049	29.7%	21.6%
2050	29.4%	21.5%

Children aged 0-14 make up 37.4% of the population in Rwanda and 25.9% in South Africa in 2024, compared to 49% and 37.7% respectively in 1990.

Demographics of Rwanda and South Africa compared.

Natural population change in Rwanda vs South Africa by year

For the past 10 years, the annual natural population change (excluding migration) has been +2.45% in Rwanda and +1.05% in South Africa. The chart below illustrates the comparison of the absolute yearly changes resulting from births and deaths.

Table

Year	Population change due to births and deaths
	Rwanda	South Africa
1960	100,627	421,263
1961	102,051	437,851
1962	102,548	455,634
1963	94,296	473,821
1964	102,562	490,606
1965	103,422	506,632
1966	105,128	534,862
1967	108,053	553,741
1968	111,422	571,841
1969	115,394	590,794
1970	119,273	605,102
1971	122,567	624,761
1972	126,403	638,754
1973	131,021	651,596
1974	135,743	658,438
1975	140,596	667,862
1976	147,665	675,011
1977	155,011	680,929
1978	163,779	694,341
1979	174,477	716,541
1980	184,988	738,415
1981	195,769	767,833
1982	205,147	807,550
1983	212,750	837,013
1984	219,337	869,011
1985	223,794	893,889
1986	225,526	903,644
1987	225,744	922,330
1988	223,759	909,221
1989	217,632	884,629
1990	207,895	835,421
1991	196,431	827,296
1992	188,025	794,415
1993	183,926	789,220
1994	-719,479	698,609
1995	121,137	743,488
1996	140,455	710,868
1997	174,687	667,969
1998	197,185	627,027
1999	210,518	594,643
2000	221,276	526,963
2001	230,845	484,801
2002	239,036	430,926
2003	251,243	415,018
2004	265,273	442,540
2005	275,121	464,464
2006	282,149	487,584
2007	285,791	503,567
2008	287,334	595,332
2009	287,034	554,115
2010	286,848	566,834
2011	282,922	601,708
2012	282,584	643,723
2013	286,331	652,427
2014	292,779	674,754
2015	299,114	668,771
2016	305,549	641,365
2017	310,323	645,975
2018	312,512	648,319
2019	313,525	652,130
2020	312,692	595,873
2021	309,895	456,411
2022	312,145	603,636
2023	312,762	602,793

Maternal mortality chart: Rwanda vs South Africa

The maternal mortality rate, which is the probability of dying during childbirth or within 42 days of pregnancy termination, is 229 deaths per 100,000 live births in Rwanda, compared to 118 deaths in South Africa.

Table

Year	Maternal mortality per 100K births
	Rwanda	South Africa
1985	1,116	208
1986	1,126	200
1987	1,145	192
1988	1,188	184
1989	1,238	177
1990	1,309	170
1991	1,386	162
1992	1,530	152
1993	1,619	145
1994	5,721	133
1995	1,505	125
1996	1,295	150
1997	1,318	152
1998	1,268	152
1999	1,073	151
2000	885	175
2001	769	192
2002	677	225
2003	551	245
2004	460	259
2005	465	279
2006	494	283
2007	494	272
2008	454	272
2009	418	241
2010	393	226
2011	358	202
2012	331	194
2013	317	180
2014	301	162
2015	292	150
2016	278	141
2017	275	134
2018	269	128
2019	261	119
2020	252	118
2021	254	191
2022	234	129
2023	229	118

Under-five mortality rates

The chance that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five is 4% in Rwanda and 3.47% in South Africa. Below is the historical data on under-five mortality rates.

Table

Year	Mortality rate before reaching 5 years of age, per 1,000 live births
	Rwanda	South Africa
1960	22.4%	-
1961	21.9%	-
1962	21.5%	-
1963	21.3%	-
1964	21.1%	-
1965	21.1%	-
1966	21.2%	-
1967	21.4%	-
1968	21.7%	-
1969	22%	-
1970	22.3%	-
1971	22.6%	-
1972	23%	-
1973	23.4%	-
1974	24%	13.2%
1975	24.6%	12.5%
1976	25.1%	11.8%
1977	25.1%	11.1%
1978	24.6%	10.5%
1979	23.4%	9.88%
1980	21.8%	9.35%
1981	20.1%	8.84%
1982	18.6%	8.39%
1983	17.4%	7.98%
1984	16.6%	7.6%
1985	16.1%	7.24%
1986	15.6%	6.89%
1987	15.2%	6.56%
1988	14.8%	6.26%
1989	14.8%	6.01%
1990	15.1%	5.82%
1991	16%	5.7%
1992	17.5%	5.66%
1993	19.3%	5.7%
1994	38.9%	5.82%
1995	21.8%	5.95%
1996	22.2%	6.11%
1997	22.2%	6.29%
1998	21.5%	6.56%
1999	20.2%	6.85%
2000	18.5%	7.11%
2001	16.7%	7.43%
2002	14.9%	7.69%
2003	13.3%	7.93%
2004	11.8%	8.1%
2005	10.5%	8.03%
2006	9.37%	7.75%
2007	8.45%	7.19%
2008	7.62%	6.42%
2009	6.92%	5.7%
2010	6.33%	5%
2011	5.81%	4.5%
2012	5.45%	4.25%
2013	5.17%	4.1%
2014	4.96%	3.96%
2015	4.78%	3.82%
2016	4.63%	3.68%
2017	4.52%	3.58%
2018	4.43%	3.49%
2019	4.34%	3.45%
2020	4.25%	3.41%
2021	4.16%	3.41%
2022	4.08%	3.44%
2023	4%	3.47%