Fertility & birth rates in Nigeria and South Africa

Fertility rate in Nigeria vs South Africa by year

Chart Table

Nigeria

South Africa

1x

Year	Fertility rate
	Nigeria	South Africa
2023	4.48	2.22
2022	4.55	2.23
2021	4.64	2.25
2020	4.7	2.26
2019	4.86	2.26
2018	5.02	2.27
2017	5.18	2.28
2016	5.34	2.26
2015	5.5	2.36
2014	5.62	2.42
2013	5.69	2.43
2012	5.8	2.45
2011	5.89	2.44
2010	5.95	2.44
2009	5.99	2.5
2008	6.02	2.68
2007	6.03	2.55
2006	6.05	2.55
2005	6.06	2.51
2004	6.09	2.44
2003	6.1	2.36
2002	6.12	2.32
2001	6.13	2.37
2000	6.12	2.41
1999	6.08	2.56
1998	6.07	2.63
1997	6.14	2.73
1996	6.22	2.99
1995	6.27	3.17
1994	6.32	3.26
1993	6.35	3.37
1992	6.39	3.48
1991	6.43	3.62
1990	6.46	3.72
1989	6.49	3.98
1988	6.5	4.18
1987	6.5	4.35
1986	6.56	4.41
1985	6.62	4.5
1984	6.7	4.57
1983	6.78	4.63
1982	6.8	4.7
1981	6.82	4.71
1980	6.85	4.78
1979	6.89	4.82
1978	6.92	4.85
1977	6.86	4.94
1976	6.81	5.07
1975	6.77	5.19
1974	6.7	5.3
1973	6.63	5.41
1972	6.58	5.49
1971	6.53	5.57
1970	6.47	5.63
1969	6.44	5.72
1968	6.42	5.78
1967	6.4	5.85
1966	6.39	5.91
1965	6.37	5.89
1964	6.36	5.96
1963	6.35	6.01
1962	6.36	6.05
1961	6.35	6.08
1960	6.36	6.11

According to the latest available data on birth rates, the fertility rate in Nigeria was 4.48 children per woman in 2023, compared to 2.22 in South Africa in 2023. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 children per woman.

Check Nigeria vs South Africa population clock for a dynamic visualization of the changing population.

Natural population change by year

Chart Table

Nigeria

South Africa

1x

Year	Natural population change
	Nigeria	South Africa
2023	4,834,309	602,793
2022	4,739,502	603,636
2021	4,641,562	456,411
2020	4,525,164	595,873
2019	4,609,941	652,130
2018	4,659,898	648,319
2017	4,706,183	645,975
2016	4,761,594	641,365
2015	4,823,045	668,771
2014	4,862,319	674,754
2013	4,811,751	652,427
2012	4,774,508	643,723
2011	4,728,363	601,708
2010	4,629,173	566,834
2009	4,528,149	554,115
2008	4,412,976	595,332
2007	4,265,428	503,567
2006	4,135,703	487,584
2005	4,013,788	464,464
2004	3,877,376	442,540
2003	3,751,120	415,018
2002	3,606,814	430,926
2001	3,478,370	484,801
2000	3,343,196	526,963
1999	3,155,425	594,643
1998	3,003,946	627,027
1997	2,936,500	667,969
1996	2,882,205	710,868
1995	2,830,771	743,488
1994	2,735,198	698,609
1993	2,673,675	789,220
1992	2,596,173	794,415
1991	2,527,807	827,296
1990	2,491,928	835,421
1989	2,452,324	884,629
1988	2,376,419	909,221
1987	2,322,397	922,330
1986	2,295,003	903,644
1985	2,289,784	893,889
1984	2,278,060	869,011
1983	2,292,089	837,013
1982	2,233,401	807,550
1981	2,179,884	767,833
1980	2,121,618	738,415
1979	2,074,807	716,541
1978	2,019,621	694,341
1977	1,923,917	680,929
1976	1,827,289	675,011
1975	1,718,623	667,862
1974	1,624,813	658,438
1973	1,525,485	651,596
1972	1,448,928	638,754
1971	1,373,896	624,761
1970	1,295,507	605,102
1969	1,213,484	590,794
1968	1,168,254	571,841
1967	1,082,884	553,741
1966	1,095,582	534,862
1965	1,061,840	506,632
1964	1,028,272	490,606
1963	995,116	473,821
1962	966,452	455,634
1961	932,111	437,851
1960	901,301	421,263

The chart above illustrates the comparison of the absolute yearly changes in population resulting from births and deaths.

Excluding migration, the natural population change due to births and deaths from 2022 to 2023 was +2.12% in Nigeria and +0.95% in South Africa.

For the past 10 years, the annual natural population change has been +2.29% in Nigeria and +1.05% in South Africa.

Birth rate in Nigeria vs South Africa by year

Chart Table

Nigeria

South Africa

Annual births per 1,000 people

1x

Year	Annual births per 1,000 people
	Nigeria	South Africa
2023	33	18.8
2022	33.2	19.1
2021	33.5	19.4
2020	33.7	19.5
2019	34.7	19.7
2018	35.7	19.9
2017	36.7	20
2016	37.8	20.3
2015	39	21
2014	39.9	21.8
2013	40.4	21.9
2012	41.1	22.1
2011	41.8	22.1
2010	42.1	22.2
2009	42.5	22.8
2008	42.8	24.3
2007	42.9	23.1
2006	43.2	23.1
2005	43.4	22.7
2004	43.5	22.1
2003	43.7	21.4
2002	43.8	20.9
2001	43.9	21.3
2000	43.9	21.6
1999	43.4	22.7
1998	43.2	23.2
1997	43.5	23.9
1996	43.9	24.9
1995	44.1	25.6
1994	44	24.6
1993	44.1	26.6
1992	44.2	27
1991	44.3	28.1
1990	44.5	28.7
1989	44.8	30.6
1988	44.7	32
1987	44.8	33.2
1986	45.3	33.6
1985	45.9	34.2
1984	46.5	34.5
1983	47.5	34.6
1982	47.5	34.8
1981	47.9	34.6
1980	48.3	34.7
1979	48.8	34.9
1978	49.3	35.1
1977	49.1	35.6
1976	49	36.3
1975	49	37
1974	48.7	37.7
1973	48.2	38.4
1972	48	38.9
1971	47.8	39.3
1970	47.4	39.4
1969	47.3	39.7
1968	47.2	39.8
1967	47.1	39.9
1966	47	40
1965	46.9	39.5
1964	46.9	39.6
1963	46.8	39.7
1962	46.7	39.7
1961	46.6	39.7
1960	46.5	39.8

The latest reported birth rate per 1,000 people in 2023 was 33 in Nigeria and 18.8 in South Africa, compared with 46.5 and 39.8, respectively, in 1960.

Children 0-14 years as share of population

Chart Table

Nigeria

Factual

UN forecast

South Africa

Factual

UN forecast

1x

Year	Young
	Nigeria	South Africa
2100	20.4%	17.9%
2099	20.5%	18%
2098	20.6%	18%
2097	20.7%	18.1%
2096	20.8%	18.1%
2095	20.9%	18.2%
2094	21%	18.2%
2093	21.1%	18.3%
2092	21.2%	18.3%
2091	21.4%	18.4%
2090	21.5%	18.4%
2089	21.6%	18.5%
2088	21.8%	18.5%
2087	21.9%	18.6%
2086	22.1%	18.6%
2085	22.2%	18.7%
2084	22.4%	18.7%
2083	22.6%	18.8%
2082	22.7%	18.9%
2081	22.9%	18.9%
2080	23.1%	19%
2079	23.3%	19%
2078	23.5%	19.1%
2077	23.7%	19.2%
2076	23.9%	19.3%
2075	24.1%	19.3%
2074	24.3%	19.4%
2073	24.5%	19.5%
2072	24.7%	19.6%
2071	25%	19.6%
2070	25.2%	19.7%
2069	25.4%	19.8%
2068	25.7%	19.9%
2067	25.9%	20%
2066	26.1%	20.1%
2065	26.4%	20.2%
2064	26.6%	20.3%
2063	26.9%	20.4%
2062	27.2%	20.5%
2061	27.4%	20.6%
2060	27.7%	20.7%
2059	28%	20.8%
2058	28.3%	20.9%
2057	28.6%	21%
2056	29%	21.1%
2055	29.3%	21.1%
2054	29.6%	21.2%
2053	30%	21.3%
2052	30.3%	21.4%
2051	30.7%	21.5%
2050	31.1%	21.6%
2049	31.5%	21.7%
2048	31.8%	21.8%
2047	32.2%	21.9%
2046	32.6%	22%
2045	32.9%	22.1%
2044	33.3%	22.3%
2043	33.7%	22.4%
2042	34%	22.6%
2041	34.4%	22.8%
2040	34.7%	23%
2039	35%	23.3%
2038	35.4%	23.5%
2037	35.7%	23.7%
2036	36%	24.1%
2035	36.3%	24.4%
2034	36.6%	24.7%
2033	37%	24.9%
2032	37.4%	25%
2031	37.8%	25.1%
2030	38.3%	25.2%
2029	38.8%	25.3%
2028	39.3%	25.4%
2027	39.8%	25.5%
2026	40.3%	25.6%
2025	40.8%	25.8%
2024	41%	25.9%
2023	41.5%	26.1%
2022	42%	26.3%
2021	42.4%	26.6%
2020	42.8%	27%
2019	43.2%	27.4%
2018	43.6%	27.9%
2017	43.9%	28.3%
2016	44.1%	28.3%
2015	44.3%	28.3%
2014	44.4%	28.5%
2013	44.5%	28.7%
2012	44.5%	28.9%
2011	44.5%	29.1%
2010	44.4%	29.4%
2009	44.4%	29.7%
2008	44.3%	29.9%
2007	44.2%	30.2%
2006	44.1%	30.6%
2005	44%	31.1%
2004	43.9%	31.6%
2003	43.8%	32.3%
2002	43.8%	33.2%
2001	43.7%	34%
2000	43.7%	34.9%
1999	43.8%	35.7%
1998	43.9%	36.5%
1997	44.1%	37.2%
1996	44.2%	37.5%
1995	44.4%	37.5%
1994	44.6%	37.2%
1993	44.8%	37.3%
1992	45%	37.6%
1991	45.2%	37.5%
1990	45.3%	37.7%
1989	45.5%	38.1%
1988	45.5%	38.4%
1987	45.6%	38.7%
1986	45.6%	38.9%
1985	45.5%	39.2%
1984	45.4%	39.5%
1983	45.2%	39.8%
1982	45%	40.1%
1981	44.8%	40.5%
1980	44.6%	40.9%
1979	44.4%	41.3%
1978	44.2%	41.5%
1977	43.9%	41.7%
1976	43.7%	41.8%
1975	43.4%	41.9%
1974	43.2%	42%
1973	43%	42.1%
1972	42.8%	42.2%
1971	42.5%	42.2%
1970	42.4%	42.3%
1969	42.2%	42.2%
1968	42%	42.2%
1967	41.8%	42.2%
1966	41.7%	42.1%
1965	41.5%	42.1%
1964	41.4%	42.1%
1963	41.2%	42.1%
1962	41.1%	42.1%
1961	41.1%	42.1%
1960	41.1%	42.1%

Children aged 0-14 make up 41% of the population in Nigeria and 25.9% in South Africa in 2024, compared to 45.3% and 37.7% respectively in 1990.

Demographics of Nigeria and South Africa compared.

Maternal mortality chart: Nigeria vs South Africa

Chart Table

Nigeria

South Africa

1x

Year	Maternal mortality per 100K births
	Nigeria	South Africa
2023	993	118
2022	1,016	129
2021	1,046	191
2020	1,065	118
2019	1,091	119
2018	1,118	128
2017	1,142	134
2016	1,155	141
2015	1,168	150
2014	1,155	162
2013	1,146	180
2012	1,124	194
2011	1,108	202
2010	1,094	226
2009	1,088	241
2008	1,081	272
2007	1,063	272
2006	1,067	283
2005	1,060	279
2004	1,075	259
2003	1,090	245
2002	1,117	225
2001	1,130	192
2000	1,136	175
1999	1,165	151
1998	1,189	152
1997	1,184	152
1996	1,185	150
1995	1,186	125
1994	1,193	133
1993	1,200	145
1992	1,246	152
1991	1,282	162
1990	1,285	170
1989	1,304	177
1988	1,332	184
1987	1,351	192
1986	1,363	200
1985	1,344	208

The maternal mortality rate, which is the probability of dying during childbirth or within 42 days of pregnancy termination, is 993 deaths per 100,000 live births in Nigeria, compared to 118 deaths in South Africa.

Under-five mortality rates

Chart Table

Nigeria

South Africa

Probability that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five

1x

Year	Under 5 mortality rate
	Nigeria	South Africa
2023	10.5%	3.47%
2022	10.8%	3.44%
2021	11.1%	3.41%
2020	11.4%	3.41%
2019	11.8%	3.45%
2018	12%	3.49%
2017	12.3%	3.58%
2016	12.5%	3.68%
2015	12.6%	3.82%
2014	12.8%	3.96%
2013	12.9%	4.1%
2012	13.1%	4.25%
2011	13.3%	4.5%
2010	13.5%	5%
2009	13.8%	5.7%
2008	14.1%	6.42%
2007	14.5%	7.19%
2006	15%	7.75%
2005	15.5%	8.03%
2004	16%	8.1%
2003	16.5%	7.93%
2002	17.1%	7.69%
2001	17.7%	7.43%
2000	18.2%	7.11%
1999	18.8%	6.85%
1998	19.3%	6.56%
1997	19.7%	6.29%
1996	20.1%	6.11%
1995	20.4%	5.95%
1994	20.6%	5.82%
1993	20.7%	5.7%
1992	20.8%	5.66%
1991	20.9%	5.7%
1990	21%	5.82%
1989	21%	6.01%
1988	21%	6.26%
1987	20.9%	6.56%
1986	20.9%	6.89%
1985	20.8%	7.24%
1984	20.7%	7.6%
1983	20.7%	7.98%
1982	20.8%	8.39%
1981	21%	8.84%
1980	21.3%	9.35%
1979	21.8%	9.88%
1978	22.3%	10.5%
1977	22.9%	11.1%
1976	23.6%	11.8%
1975	24.4%	12.5%
1974	25.2%	13.2%
1973	26.1%	-
1972	26.9%	-
1971	27.7%	-
1970	28.5%	-
1969	29.3%	-
1968	30%	-
1967	30.7%	-
1966	31.3%	-
1965	32%	-
1964	32.7%	-

The chance that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five is 10.5% in Nigeria and 3.47% in South Africa. Above is a chart with historical data on under-five mortality rates.