Fertility & birth rates in Ethiopia and Kenya

Fertility rate in Ethiopia vs Kenya chart

According to the latest available data on birth rates, the fertility rate in Ethiopia was 3.99 children per woman in 2023, compared to 3.21 in Kenya in 2023. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 children per woman.

Check Ethiopia vs Kenya population clock for a dynamic visualization of the changing population.

The chart below showcases historical changes in the birth rates.

Table

Year	Fertility rate
	Ethiopia	Kenya
1960	6.51	7.65
1961	6.53	7.72
1962	6.56	7.77
1963	6.59	7.82
1964	6.61	7.87
1965	6.63	7.92
1966	6.66	7.96
1967	6.68	7.95
1968	6.7	7.95
1969	6.72	7.95
1970	6.78	7.94
1971	6.84	7.92
1972	6.9	7.89
1973	6.96	7.86
1974	7.02	7.82
1975	7.08	7.8
1976	7.13	7.77
1977	7.19	7.73
1978	7.23	7.67
1979	7.25	7.6
1980	7.29	7.53
1981	7.31	7.45
1982	7.34	7.35
1983	7.35	7.22
1984	7.36	7.08
1985	7.34	6.96
1986	7.32	6.84
1987	7.29	6.69
1988	7.26	6.52
1989	7.23	6.33
1990	7.2	6.14
1991	7.16	5.94
1992	7.13	5.74
1993	7.09	5.57
1994	7.05	5.44
1995	7	5.37
1996	6.93	5.31
1997	6.87	5.27
1998	6.79	5.24
1999	6.72	5.18
2000	6.65	5.14
2001	6.58	5.09
2002	6.5	5.03
2003	6.4	4.94
2004	6.3	4.86
2005	6.19	4.8
2006	6.05	4.75
2007	5.89	4.72
2008	5.7	4.66
2009	5.49	4.57
2010	5.28	4.45
2011	5.08	4.28
2012	4.89	4.12
2013	4.71	3.96
2014	4.61	3.84
2015	4.53	3.77
2016	4.47	3.69
2017	4.4	3.61
2018	4.37	3.54
2019	4.35	3.43
2020	4.27	3.36
2021	4.18	3.31
2022	4.08	3.26
2023	3.99	3.21
2024	3.91	3.17
2025	3.81	3.12
2026	3.72	3.07
2027	3.64	3.03
2028	3.57	2.99
2029	3.5	2.95
2030	3.43	2.92
2031	3.36	2.89
2032	3.3	2.85
2033	3.24	2.82
2034	3.19	2.78
2035	3.14	2.75
2036	3.08	2.72
2037	3.03	2.69
2038	2.99	2.66
2039	2.94	2.63
2040	2.9	2.61
2041	2.86	2.58
2042	2.83	2.55
2043	2.79	2.53
2044	2.75	2.5
2045	2.72	2.47
2046	2.68	2.44
2047	2.65	2.42
2048	2.62	2.4
2049	2.59	2.38
2050	2.55	2.36

Children 0-14 years as share of population

Table

Year	Share of people 0-14 years old
	Ethiopia	Kenya
1960	42.2%	48.7%
1961	42.2%	49.1%
1962	42.1%	49.4%
1963	42.2%	49.7%
1964	42.3%	49.8%
1965	42.5%	50.2%
1966	42.9%	50.6%
1967	43.2%	50.9%
1968	43.5%	51.2%
1969	43.8%	51.4%
1970	44.2%	51.6%
1971	44.5%	51.7%
1972	44.9%	51.9%
1973	45.2%	52%
1974	45.4%	52%
1975	45.6%	52%
1976	45.7%	52.1%
1977	45.9%	52%
1978	46.1%	51.9%
1979	46.2%	51.7%
1980	46.3%	51.5%
1981	46.4%	51.3%
1982	46.5%	51.1%
1983	46.4%	50.8%
1984	46.2%	50.6%
1985	46.1%	50.3%
1986	46%	50.1%
1987	46%	49.9%
1988	46%	49.7%
1989	46.1%	49.5%
1990	46.2%	49.2%
1991	46.2%	48.9%
1992	46.2%	48.7%
1993	46.4%	48.4%
1994	46.5%	48%
1995	46.7%	47.7%
1996	46.9%	47.4%
1997	47.1%	47.1%
1998	47.4%	46.8%
1999	47.6%	46.5%
2000	47.7%	46.1%
2001	47.8%	45.7%
2002	47.8%	45.3%
2003	47.7%	45%
2004	47.6%	44.6%
2005	47.4%	44.4%
2006	47.2%	44.2%
2007	46.9%	44%
2008	46.6%	43.9%
2009	46.2%	43.8%
2010	45.7%	43.6%
2011	45.2%	43.4%
2012	44.6%	43.2%
2013	44%	42.8%
2014	43.4%	42.4%
2015	42.9%	42%
2016	42.3%	41.5%
2017	41.8%	41%
2018	41.3%	40.5%
2019	40.9%	39.9%
2020	40.5%	39.3%
2021	40.1%	38.7%
2022	39.7%	38.1%
2023	39.4%	37.4%
2024	39.1%	36.8%
2025	38.8%	36.3%
2026	38.5%	35.7%
2027	38.3%	35.3%
2028	38.1%	34.9%
2029	37.8%	34.5%
2030	37.6%	34.2%
2031	37.3%	33.9%
2032	37%	33.6%
2033	36.6%	33.4%
2034	36.2%	33.2%
2035	35.8%	32.9%
2036	35.4%	32.7%
2037	34.9%	32.5%
2038	34.5%	32.2%
2039	34%	32%
2040	33.6%	31.7%
2041	33.2%	31.4%
2042	32.8%	31%
2043	32.4%	30.7%
2044	32%	30.4%
2045	31.7%	30%
2046	31.3%	29.7%
2047	31%	29.3%
2048	30.7%	28.9%
2049	30.3%	28.5%
2050	30%	28.2%

Children aged 0-14 make up 39.1% of the population in Ethiopia and 36.8% in Kenya in 2024, compared to 46.2% and 49.2% respectively in 1990.

Demographics of Ethiopia and Kenya compared.

Natural population change in Ethiopia vs Kenya by year

For the past 10 years, the annual natural population change (excluding migration) has been +2.64% in Ethiopia and +2.16% in Kenya. The chart below illustrates the comparison of the absolute yearly changes resulting from births and deaths.

Table

Year	Population change due to births and deaths
	Ethiopia	Kenya
1960	511,694	280,032
1961	538,518	298,463
1962	563,650	315,797
1963	590,998	332,763
1964	618,667	349,322
1965	642,359	366,444
1966	616,281	382,891
1967	695,283	396,920
1968	715,602	411,948
1969	736,428	427,819
1970	760,821	443,065
1971	787,047	459,897
1972	779,808	472,557
1973	807,535	485,556
1974	777,306	500,008
1975	801,425	517,579
1976	899,577	536,740
1977	929,381	554,124
1978	943,388	574,695
1979	987,203	595,390
1980	1,007,516	616,390
1981	1,018,838	642,379
1982	1,080,853	663,109
1983	863,472	684,587
1984	920,670	709,639
1985	997,050	732,739
1986	1,050,277	755,606
1987	1,356,853	775,124
1988	1,393,356	785,652
1989	1,441,769	795,622
1990	1,479,663	789,087
1991	1,579,416	790,030
1992	1,673,839	785,018
1993	1,734,851	788,579
1994	1,788,133	792,702
1995	1,831,068	812,391
1996	1,896,364	827,326
1997	1,945,112	847,493
1998	1,984,989	875,511
1999	2,010,987	898,484
2000	2,083,622	928,357
2001	2,137,791	963,721
2002	2,189,683	992,044
2003	2,231,223	1,018,182
2004	2,296,999	1,048,590
2005	2,353,375	1,080,446
2006	2,393,585	1,113,357
2007	2,436,753	1,147,063
2008	2,465,283	1,174,818
2009	2,467,118	1,193,598
2010	2,498,048	1,199,786
2011	2,527,811	1,185,863
2012	2,533,398	1,161,548
2013	2,546,020	1,136,006
2014	2,623,647	1,123,333
2015	2,713,529	1,119,200
2016	2,809,889	1,108,801
2017	2,899,143	1,105,769
2018	3,015,231	1,097,075
2019	3,132,780	1,071,777
2020	3,199,718	1,036,253
2021	3,204,673	1,037,082
2022	3,300,114	1,092,102
2023	3,338,649	1,100,970

Maternal mortality chart: Ethiopia vs Kenya

The maternal mortality rate, which is the probability of dying during childbirth or within 42 days of pregnancy termination, is 195 deaths per 100,000 live births in Ethiopia, compared to 149 deaths in Kenya.

Table

Year	Maternal mortality per 100K births
	Ethiopia	Kenya
1985	1,329	1,375
1986	1,317	1,059
1987	1,289	960
1988	1,306	756
1989	1,296	663
1990	1,320	586
1991	1,239	493
1992	1,218	419
1993	1,168	363
1994	1,113	342
1995	1,060	308
1996	1,008	275
1997	957	253
1998	911	250
1999	901	217
2000	870	206
2001	856	188
2002	826	182
2003	797	177
2004	764	177
2005	754	178
2006	729	188
2007	704	198
2008	678	197
2009	649	208
2010	619	210
2011	588	209
2012	545	214
2013	494	206
2014	444	203
2015	401	203
2016	364	196
2017	327	186
2018	297	183
2019	269	176
2020	244	184
2021	250	183
2022	207	155
2023	195	149

Under-five mortality rates

The chance that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five is 4.65% in Ethiopia and 3.99% in Kenya. Below is the historical data on under-five mortality rates.

Table

Year	Mortality rate before reaching 5 years of age, per 1,000 live births
	Ethiopia	Kenya
1960	-	19.6%
1961	-	18.8%
1962	-	18.1%
1963	-	17.5%
1964	-	17%
1965	-	16.6%
1966	27.8%	16.3%
1967	24.9%	16%
1968	24.8%	15.7%
1969	24.8%	15.4%
1970	24.7%	15%
1971	24.7%	14.7%
1972	24.7%	14.3%
1973	24.6%	14%
1974	28.3%	13.5%
1975	28.2%	13.1%
1976	24.5%	12.7%
1977	24.5%	12.2%
1978	24.4%	11.8%
1979	24.2%	11.4%
1980	24%	11%
1981	23.8%	10.6%
1982	23.5%	10.3%
1983	32%	9.98%
1984	31.4%	9.74%
1985	30.3%	9.57%
1986	29.7%	9.49%
1987	21.5%	9.51%
1988	21%	9.63%
1989	20.6%	9.85%
1990	20.2%	10.1%
1991	19.7%	10.5%
1992	19.1%	10.7%
1993	18.5%	10.9%
1994	17.9%	11%
1995	17.2%	11%
1996	16.6%	10.9%
1997	15.9%	10.7%
1998	15.3%	10.4%
1999	14.7%	10.1%
2000	14%	9.63%
2001	13.4%	9.16%
2002	12.8%	8.66%
2003	12.1%	8.16%
2004	11.5%	7.66%
2005	10.9%	7.15%
2006	10.3%	6.71%
2007	9.74%	6.32%
2008	9.23%	5.82%
2009	8.76%	5.54%
2010	8.32%	5.35%
2011	7.91%	5.22%
2012	7.53%	5.12%
2013	7.16%	5%
2014	6.82%	4.88%
2015	6.49%	4.74%
2016	6.17%	4.6%
2017	5.89%	4.53%
2018	5.64%	4.43%
2019	5.41%	4.33%
2020	5.2%	4.28%
2021	5%	4.19%
2022	4.82%	4.11%
2023	4.65%	3.99%