Fertility & birth rates in Eritrea and Kenya

Fertility rate in Eritrea vs Kenya by year

Chart Table

Eritrea

Kenya

1x

Year	Fertility rate
	Eritrea	Kenya
2023	3.71	3.21
2022	3.79	3.26
2021	3.87	3.31
2020	3.93	3.36
2019	4	3.43
2018	4.06	3.54
2017	4.11	3.61
2016	4.16	3.69
2015	4.22	3.77
2014	4.27	3.84
2013	4.34	3.96
2012	4.41	4.12
2011	4.49	4.28
2010	4.57	4.45
2009	4.66	4.57
2008	4.74	4.66
2007	4.81	4.72
2006	4.88	4.75
2005	4.93	4.8
2004	5.04	4.86
2003	5.14	4.94
2002	5.23	5.03
2001	5.31	5.09
2000	5.4	5.14
1999	5.52	5.18
1998	5.63	5.24
1997	5.74	5.27
1996	5.84	5.31
1995	5.94	5.37
1994	6.01	5.44
1993	6.07	5.57
1992	6.16	5.74
1991	6.24	5.94
1990	6.34	6.14
1989	6.41	6.33
1988	6.47	6.52
1987	6.52	6.69
1986	6.56	6.84
1985	6.59	6.96
1984	6.62	7.08
1983	6.65	7.22
1982	6.63	7.35
1981	6.62	7.45
1980	6.61	7.53
1979	6.62	7.6
1978	6.61	7.67
1977	6.61	7.73
1976	6.6	7.77
1975	6.59	7.8
1974	6.57	7.82
1973	6.55	7.86
1972	6.54	7.89
1971	6.54	7.92
1970	6.54	7.94
1969	6.5	7.95
1968	6.5	7.95
1967	6.5	7.95
1966	6.5	7.96
1965	6.49	7.92
1964	6.49	7.87
1963	6.48	7.82
1962	6.5	7.77
1961	6.47	7.72
1960	6.48	7.65

According to the latest available data on birth rates, the fertility rate in Eritrea was 3.71 children per woman in 2023, compared to 3.21 in Kenya in 2023. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 children per woman.

Check Eritrea vs Kenya population clock for a dynamic visualization of the changing population.

Natural population change by year

Chart Table

Eritrea

Kenya

1x

Year	Natural population change
	Eritrea	Kenya
2023	78,073	1,100,970
2022	76,221	1,092,102
2021	74,394	1,037,082
2020	73,362	1,036,253
2019	73,572	1,071,777
2018	72,511	1,097,075
2017	72,291	1,105,769
2016	73,002	1,108,801
2015	73,682	1,119,200
2014	75,729	1,123,333
2013	75,562	1,136,006
2012	76,416	1,161,548
2011	76,806	1,185,863
2010	76,098	1,199,786
2009	76,206	1,193,598
2008	73,391	1,174,818
2007	73,101	1,147,063
2006	74,470	1,113,357
2005	72,930	1,080,446
2004	72,147	1,048,590
2003	66,291	1,018,182
2002	65,436	992,044
2001	61,180	963,721
2000	60,274	928,357
1999	45,120	898,484
1998	55,332	875,511
1997	63,953	847,493
1996	66,557	827,326
1995	56,157	812,391
1994	56,288	792,702
1993	51,679	788,579
1992	51,443	785,018
1991	57,741	790,030
1990	56,903	789,087
1989	54,299	795,622
1988	54,163	785,652
1987	52,229	775,124
1986	39,470	755,606
1985	37,362	732,739
1984	35,101	709,639
1983	33,420	684,587
1982	44,146	663,109
1981	42,924	642,379
1980	41,392	616,390
1979	39,577	595,390
1978	38,353	574,695
1977	37,295	554,124
1976	36,250	536,740
1975	30,971	517,579
1974	30,111	500,008
1973	31,969	485,556
1972	30,951	472,557
1971	31,490	459,897
1970	30,686	443,065
1969	29,535	427,819
1968	28,777	411,948
1967	27,992	396,920
1966	24,713	382,891
1965	26,285	366,444
1964	25,327	349,322
1963	24,393	332,763
1962	23,478	315,797
1961	22,351	298,463
1960	21,424	280,032

The chart above illustrates the comparison of the absolute yearly changes in population resulting from births and deaths.

Excluding migration, the natural population change due to births and deaths from 2022 to 2023 was +2.25% in Eritrea and +1.99% in Kenya.

For the past 10 years, the annual natural population change has been +2.29% in Eritrea and +2.16% in Kenya.

Birth rate in Eritrea vs Kenya by year

Chart Table

Eritrea

Kenya

Annual births per 1,000 people

1x

Year	Annual births per 1,000 people
	Eritrea	Kenya
2023	28.5	27.1
2022	28.7	27.3
2021	28.8	27.6
2020	28.9	27.8
2019	29.1	28.2
2018	29.2	29
2017	29.6	29.6
2016	30.1	30.2
2015	30.6	30.9
2014	31.5	31.5
2013	31.7	32.4
2012	32.4	33.7
2011	33	35
2010	33.5	36.3
2009	34.2	37.2
2008	34.1	37.9
2007	35	38.3
2006	36.2	38.5
2005	36.4	38.8
2004	37	39.1
2003	35.9	39.5
2002	37.1	39.9
2001	36.4	40.2
2000	38	40.2
1999	38.4	40.3
1998	39.9	40.6
1997	41.2	40.5
1996	43.3	40.6
1995	39.5	40.8
1994	42.1	40.9
1993	40.9	41.4
1992	42.3	42.1
1991	46.1	43.1
1990	43.3	43.9
1989	43.9	44.9
1988	44.3	45.6
1987	44.5	46.3
1986	44.7	46.6
1985	44.8	46.9
1984	44.9	47.2
1983	45	47.4
1982	44.8	47.8
1981	44.8	48.2
1980	44.8	48.2
1979	44.9	48.6
1978	45.1	48.9
1977	45.4	49.2
1976	45.7	49.6
1975	45.8	49.8
1974	45.9	50.2
1973	46	50.8
1972	46.2	51.5
1971	46.6	52.2
1970	47	52.5
1969	47	53.1
1968	47.3	53.5
1967	47.6	54.1
1966	47.7	54.6
1965	47.8	54.9
1964	47.9	55.1
1963	47.9	55.3
1962	48	55.4
1961	47.8	55.4
1960	47.7	55.2

The latest reported birth rate per 1,000 people in 2023 was 28.5 in Eritrea and 27.1 in Kenya, compared with 47.7 and 55.2, respectively, in 1960.

Children 0-14 years as share of population

Chart Table

Eritrea

Factual

UN forecast

Kenya

Factual

UN forecast

1x

Year	Young
	Eritrea	Kenya
2100	19%	18.9%
2099	19.1%	19%
2098	19.2%	19.1%
2097	19.4%	19.2%
2096	19.5%	19.3%
2095	19.6%	19.5%
2094	19.8%	19.6%
2093	19.9%	19.7%
2092	20%	19.8%
2091	20.2%	19.9%
2090	20.3%	20%
2089	20.5%	20.1%
2088	20.6%	20.2%
2087	20.8%	20.4%
2086	21%	20.5%
2085	21.1%	20.7%
2084	21.3%	20.8%
2083	21.5%	21%
2082	21.7%	21.1%
2081	22%	21.3%
2080	22.2%	21.5%
2079	22.4%	21.7%
2078	22.6%	21.9%
2077	22.9%	22.1%
2076	23.1%	22.3%
2075	23.3%	22.5%
2074	23.6%	22.7%
2073	23.8%	22.9%
2072	24%	23.1%
2071	24.3%	23.3%
2070	24.5%	23.5%
2069	24.7%	23.7%
2068	25%	23.8%
2067	25.2%	24%
2066	25.4%	24.2%
2065	25.6%	24.4%
2064	25.9%	24.6%
2063	26.1%	24.8%
2062	26.3%	25%
2061	26.6%	25.2%
2060	26.8%	25.4%
2059	27.1%	25.6%
2058	27.4%	25.9%
2057	27.6%	26.1%
2056	27.9%	26.4%
2055	28.3%	26.7%
2054	28.6%	27%
2053	29%	27.3%
2052	29.3%	27.6%
2051	29.7%	28%
2050	30.1%	28.4%
2049	30.5%	28.7%
2048	30.9%	29.1%
2047	31.3%	29.5%
2046	31.7%	29.8%
2045	32.1%	30.2%
2044	32.5%	30.6%
2043	32.9%	30.9%
2042	33.2%	31.2%
2041	33.6%	31.5%
2040	33.8%	31.8%
2039	34.1%	32.1%
2038	34.3%	32.4%
2037	34.6%	32.6%
2036	34.8%	32.8%
2035	34.9%	33%
2034	35.1%	33.3%
2033	35.2%	33.5%
2032	35.4%	33.8%
2031	35.6%	34%
2030	35.8%	34.4%
2029	36.1%	34.7%
2028	36.4%	35%
2027	36.9%	35.5%
2026	37.3%	36%
2025	37.9%	36.5%
2024	38.1%	36.8%
2023	38.7%	37.4%
2022	39.2%	38.1%
2021	39.8%	38.7%
2020	40.4%	39.3%
2019	41%	39.9%
2018	41.5%	40.5%
2017	41.9%	41%
2016	42.1%	41.5%
2015	42.1%	42%
2014	42%	42.4%
2013	42%	42.8%
2012	42.1%	43.2%
2011	42.3%	43.4%
2010	42.6%	43.6%
2009	42.7%	43.8%
2008	43%	43.9%
2007	43.3%	44%
2006	43.1%	44.2%
2005	42.9%	44.4%
2004	43%	44.6%
2003	43.7%	45%
2002	44.4%	45.3%
2001	45%	45.7%
2000	45.2%	46.1%
1999	44.9%	46.5%
1998	44.4%	46.8%
1997	43.7%	47.1%
1996	42.9%	47.4%
1995	43.5%	47.7%
1994	44.4%	48%
1993	44.5%	48.4%
1992	44.7%	48.7%
1991	44.6%	48.9%
1990	44.5%	49.2%
1989	44.3%	49.5%
1988	44.2%	49.7%
1987	44%	49.9%
1986	44%	50.1%
1985	44.1%	50.3%
1984	44.2%	50.6%
1983	44.4%	50.8%
1982	44.4%	51.1%
1981	44.4%	51.3%
1980	44.4%	51.5%
1979	44.4%	51.7%
1978	44.3%	51.9%
1977	44.3%	52%
1976	44.2%	52.1%
1975	44.1%	52%
1974	44.1%	52%
1973	44%	52%
1972	43.8%	51.9%
1971	43.6%	51.7%
1970	43.3%	51.6%
1969	43%	51.4%
1968	42.8%	51.2%
1967	42.4%	50.9%
1966	42.1%	50.6%
1965	41.8%	50.2%
1964	41.6%	49.8%
1963	41.5%	49.7%
1962	41.4%	49.4%
1961	41.4%	49.1%
1960	41.5%	48.7%

Children aged 0-14 make up 38.1% of the population in Eritrea and 36.8% in Kenya in 2024, compared to 44.5% and 49.2% respectively in 1990.

Demographics of Eritrea and Kenya compared.

Maternal mortality chart: Eritrea vs Kenya

Chart Table

Eritrea

Kenya

1x

Year	Maternal mortality per 100K births
	Eritrea	Kenya
2023	291	149
2022	301	155
2021	338	183
2020	334	184
2019	351	176
2018	363	183
2017	379	186
2016	395	196
2015	413	203
2014	430	203
2013	443	206
2012	458	214
2011	478	209
2010	498	210
2009	515	208
2008	530	197
2007	541	198
2006	555	188
2005	567	178
2004	588	177
2003	588	177
2002	636	182
2001	651	188
2000	741	206
1999	734	217
1998	865	250
1997	817	253
1996	878	275
1995	854	308
1994	998	342
1993	1,040	363
1992	1,149	419
1991	1,384	493
1990	1,352	586
1989	1,473	663
1988	1,499	756
1987	1,555	960
1986	1,625	1,059
1985	1,678	1,375

The maternal mortality rate, which is the probability of dying during childbirth or within 42 days of pregnancy termination, is 291 deaths per 100,000 live births in Eritrea, compared to 149 deaths in Kenya.

Under-five mortality rates

Chart Table

Eritrea

Kenya

Probability that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five

1x

Year	Under 5 mortality rate
	Eritrea	Kenya
2023	3.54%	3.99%
2022	3.66%	4.11%
2021	3.79%	4.19%
2020	3.91%	4.28%
2019	4.03%	4.33%
2018	4.17%	4.43%
2017	4.32%	4.53%
2016	4.46%	4.6%
2015	4.61%	4.74%
2014	4.78%	4.88%
2013	4.94%	5%
2012	5.12%	5.12%
2011	5.31%	5.22%
2010	5.5%	5.35%
2009	5.71%	5.54%
2008	5.94%	5.82%
2007	6.19%	6.32%
2006	6.46%	6.71%
2005	6.75%	7.15%
2004	7.05%	7.66%
2003	7.38%	8.16%
2002	7.73%	8.66%
2001	8.11%	9.16%
2000	8.53%	9.63%
1999	10.9%	10.1%
1998	9.51%	10.4%
1997	10.1%	10.7%
1996	10.8%	10.9%
1995	11.5%	11%
1994	12.3%	11%
1993	13.1%	10.9%
1992	13.9%	10.7%
1991	14.7%	10.5%
1990	15.4%	10.1%
1989	16%	9.85%
1988	16.6%	9.63%
1987	17.1%	9.51%
1986	25.6%	9.49%
1985	26.2%	9.57%
1984	27.2%	9.74%
1983	27.8%	9.98%
1982	18.8%	10.3%
1981	19.1%	10.6%
1980	19.4%	11%
1979	19.7%	11.4%
1978	20%	11.8%
1977	20.4%	12.2%
1976	20.8%	12.7%
1975	25%	13.1%
1974	25.6%	13.5%
1973	-	14%
1972	-	14.3%
1971	-	14.7%
1970	-	15%
1969	-	15.4%
1968	-	15.7%
1967	-	16%
1966	-	16.3%
1965	-	16.6%
1964	-	17%
1963	-	17.5%
1962	-	18.1%
1961	-	18.8%
1960	-	19.6%

The chance that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five is 3.54% in Eritrea and 3.99% in Kenya. Above is a chart with historical data on under-five mortality rates.