Fertility & birth rates in Kenya and Tanzania

Fertility rate in Kenya vs Tanzania chart

According to the latest available data on birth rates, the fertility rate in Kenya was 3.21 children per woman in 2023, compared to 4.61 in Tanzania in 2023. The replacement level is considered to be 2.1 children per woman.

Check Kenya vs Tanzania population clock for a dynamic visualization of the changing population.

The chart below showcases historical changes in the birth rates.

Table

Year	Fertility rate
	Kenya	Tanzania
1960	7.65	6.54
1961	7.72	6.56
1962	7.77	6.61
1963	7.82	6.65
1964	7.87	6.68
1965	7.92	6.73
1966	7.96	6.8
1967	7.95	6.86
1968	7.95	6.9
1969	7.95	6.95
1970	7.94	7
1971	7.92	7.04
1972	7.89	7.05
1973	7.86	7.06
1974	7.82	7.12
1975	7.8	7.1
1976	7.77	7.09
1977	7.73	7.07
1978	7.67	7.06
1979	7.6	7.04
1980	7.53	6.99
1981	7.45	6.93
1982	7.35	6.87
1983	7.22	6.81
1984	7.08	6.72
1985	6.96	6.6
1986	6.84	6.49
1987	6.69	6.41
1988	6.52	6.38
1989	6.33	6.3
1990	6.14	6.2
1991	5.94	6.14
1992	5.74	6.08
1993	5.57	6
1994	5.44	5.89
1995	5.37	5.82
1996	5.31	5.83
1997	5.27	5.84
1998	5.24	5.81
1999	5.18	5.75
2000	5.14	5.67
2001	5.09	5.62
2002	5.03	5.57
2003	4.94	5.58
2004	4.86	5.6
2005	4.8	5.58
2006	4.75	5.51
2007	4.72	5.4
2008	4.66	5.32
2009	4.57	5.26
2010	4.45	5.23
2011	4.28	5.14
2012	4.12	5.14
2013	3.96	5.16
2014	3.84	5.12
2015	3.77	5.03
2016	3.69	5.01
2017	3.61	4.99
2018	3.54	4.93
2019	3.43	4.87
2020	3.36	4.8
2021	3.31	4.73
2022	3.26	4.67
2023	3.21	4.61
2024	3.17	4.54
2025	3.12	4.47
2026	3.07	4.41
2027	3.03	4.34
2028	2.99	4.28
2029	2.95	4.22
2030	2.92	4.16
2031	2.89	4.11
2032	2.85	4.04
2033	2.82	3.98
2034	2.78	3.94
2035	2.75	3.88
2036	2.72	3.83
2037	2.69	3.76
2038	2.66	3.72
2039	2.63	3.67
2040	2.61	3.63
2041	2.58	3.57
2042	2.55	3.54
2043	2.53	3.49
2044	2.5	3.46
2045	2.47	3.4
2046	2.44	3.39
2047	2.42	3.35
2048	2.4	3.31
2049	2.38	3.25
2050	2.36	3.23

Children 0-14 years as share of population

Table

Year	Share of people 0-14 years old
	Kenya	Tanzania
1960	48.7%	44.9%
1961	49.1%	44.8%
1962	49.4%	44.8%
1963	49.7%	44.8%
1964	49.8%	45%
1965	50.2%	45.2%
1966	50.6%	45.4%
1967	50.9%	45.6%
1968	51.2%	45.8%
1969	51.4%	45.9%
1970	51.6%	46%
1971	51.7%	46.1%
1972	51.9%	46.1%
1973	52%	46.2%
1974	52%	46.3%
1975	52%	46.4%
1976	52.1%	46.5%
1977	52%	46.6%
1978	51.9%	46.7%
1979	51.7%	46.9%
1980	51.5%	47.2%
1981	51.3%	47.4%
1982	51.1%	47.5%
1983	50.8%	47.6%
1984	50.6%	47.5%
1985	50.3%	47.4%
1986	50.1%	47.2%
1987	49.9%	46.9%
1988	49.7%	46.7%
1989	49.5%	46.5%
1990	49.2%	46.3%
1991	48.9%	46.2%
1992	48.7%	46%
1993	48.4%	45.5%
1994	48%	44.9%
1995	47.7%	44.5%
1996	47.4%	44.7%
1997	47.1%	44.8%
1998	46.8%	44.7%
1999	46.5%	44.7%
2000	46.1%	44.6%
2001	45.7%	44.5%
2002	45.3%	44.6%
2003	45%	44.6%
2004	44.6%	44.7%
2005	44.4%	44.8%
2006	44.2%	44.9%
2007	44%	45%
2008	43.9%	45.1%
2009	43.8%	45.3%
2010	43.6%	45.3%
2011	43.4%	45.2%
2012	43.2%	45.1%
2013	42.8%	44.9%
2014	42.4%	44.8%
2015	42%	44.5%
2016	41.5%	44.2%
2017	41%	44%
2018	40.5%	43.8%
2019	39.9%	43.6%
2020	39.3%	43.4%
2021	38.7%	43.1%
2022	38.1%	42.9%
2023	37.4%	42.7%
2024	36.8%	42.5%
2025	36.3%	42.3%
2026	35.7%	42.1%
2027	35.3%	41.9%
2028	34.9%	41.7%
2029	34.5%	41.4%
2030	34.2%	41.1%
2031	33.9%	40.9%
2032	33.6%	40.5%
2033	33.4%	40.2%
2034	33.2%	39.8%
2035	32.9%	39.5%
2036	32.7%	39.1%
2037	32.5%	38.8%
2038	32.2%	38.4%
2039	32%	38.1%
2040	31.7%	37.8%
2041	31.4%	37.5%
2042	31%	37.1%
2043	30.7%	36.8%
2044	30.4%	36.5%
2045	30%	36.2%
2046	29.7%	35.9%
2047	29.3%	35.6%
2048	28.9%	35.4%
2049	28.5%	35.1%
2050	28.2%	34.8%

Children aged 0-14 make up 36.8% of the population in Kenya and 42.5% in Tanzania in 2024, compared to 49.2% and 46.3% respectively in 1990.

Demographics of Kenya and Tanzania compared.

Natural population change in Kenya vs Tanzania by year

For the past 10 years, the annual natural population change (excluding migration) has been +2.16% in Kenya and +3.05% in Tanzania. The chart below illustrates the comparison of the absolute yearly changes resulting from births and deaths.

Table

Year	Population change due to births and deaths
	Kenya	Tanzania
1960	280,032	275,814
1961	298,463	286,839
1962	315,797	300,663
1963	332,763	314,644
1964	349,322	328,527
1965	366,444	343,456
1966	382,891	360,229
1967	396,920	374,763
1968	411,948	389,467
1969	427,819	408,322
1970	443,065	427,988
1971	459,897	449,014
1972	472,557	467,305
1973	485,556	488,429
1974	500,008	515,152
1975	517,579	533,906
1976	536,740	553,617
1977	554,124	574,938
1978	574,695	595,024
1979	595,390	613,388
1980	616,390	629,444
1981	642,379	645,496
1982	663,109	662,627
1983	684,587	679,720
1984	709,639	687,435
1985	732,739	697,867
1986	755,606	705,677
1987	775,124	718,580
1988	785,652	736,551
1989	795,622	743,854
1990	789,087	750,825
1991	790,030	762,011
1992	785,018	767,961
1993	788,579	778,044
1994	792,702	803,953
1995	812,391	838,980
1996	827,326	868,524
1997	847,493	882,544
1998	875,511	920,806
1999	898,484	948,659
2000	928,357	985,185
2001	963,721	1,026,242
2002	992,044	1,063,195
2003	1,018,182	1,118,435
2004	1,048,590	1,175,379
2005	1,080,446	1,224,165
2006	1,113,357	1,257,927
2007	1,147,063	1,278,285
2008	1,174,818	1,303,728
2009	1,193,598	1,332,015
2010	1,199,786	1,363,477
2011	1,185,863	1,384,886
2012	1,161,548	1,439,325
2013	1,136,006	1,509,008
2014	1,123,333	1,565,630
2015	1,119,200	1,592,882
2016	1,108,801	1,659,502
2017	1,105,769	1,726,909
2018	1,097,075	1,777,852
2019	1,071,777	1,816,669
2020	1,036,253	1,861,377
2021	1,037,082	1,880,137
2022	1,092,102	1,927,960
2023	1,100,970	1,960,623

Maternal mortality chart: Kenya vs Tanzania

The maternal mortality rate, which is the probability of dying during childbirth or within 42 days of pregnancy termination, is 149 deaths per 100,000 live births in Kenya, compared to 276 deaths in Tanzania.

Table

Year	Maternal mortality per 100K births
	Kenya	Tanzania
1985	1,375	980
1986	1,059	971
1987	960	964
1988	756	949
1989	663	927
1990	586	900
1991	493	873
1992	419	864
1993	363	851
1994	342	816
1995	308	797
1996	275	775
1997	253	777
1998	250	739
1999	217	635
2000	206	568
2001	188	493
2002	182	454
2003	177	397
2004	177	365
2005	178	350
2006	188	366
2007	198	453
2008	197	511
2009	208	502
2010	210	486
2011	209	475
2012	214	448
2013	206	479
2014	203	454
2015	203	433
2016	196	396
2017	186	345
2018	183	319
2019	176	292
2020	184	160
2021	183	162
2022	155	152
2023	149	276

Under-five mortality rates

The chance that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five is 3.99% in Kenya and 3.89% in Tanzania. Below is the historical data on under-five mortality rates.

Table

Year	Mortality rate before reaching 5 years of age, per 1,000 live births
	Kenya	Tanzania
1960	19.6%	24.2%
1961	18.8%	24%
1962	18.1%	23.8%
1963	17.5%	23.6%
1964	17%	23.4%
1965	16.6%	23.1%
1966	16.3%	22.8%
1967	16%	22.5%
1968	15.7%	22.2%
1969	15.4%	21.9%
1970	15%	21.6%
1971	14.7%	21.2%
1972	14.3%	20.9%
1973	14%	20.5%
1974	13.5%	20.1%
1975	13.1%	19.6%
1976	12.7%	19.2%
1977	12.2%	18.8%
1978	11.8%	18.4%
1979	11.4%	18.1%
1980	11%	17.9%
1981	10.6%	17.8%
1982	10.3%	17.8%
1983	9.98%	17.8%
1984	9.74%	17.8%
1985	9.57%	17.7%
1986	9.49%	17.6%
1987	9.51%	17.4%
1988	9.63%	17.2%
1989	9.85%	16.9%
1990	10.1%	16.7%
1991	10.5%	16.5%
1992	10.7%	16.3%
1993	10.9%	16.1%
1994	11%	15.9%
1995	11%	15.6%
1996	10.9%	15.2%
1997	10.7%	14.8%
1998	10.4%	14.2%
1999	10.1%	13.6%
2000	9.63%	12.8%
2001	9.16%	12.1%
2002	8.66%	11.3%
2003	8.16%	10.5%
2004	7.66%	9.86%
2005	7.15%	9.24%
2006	6.71%	8.69%
2007	6.32%	8.16%
2008	5.82%	7.7%
2009	5.54%	7.24%
2010	5.35%	6.86%
2011	5.22%	6.5%
2012	5.12%	6.21%
2013	5%	5.95%
2014	4.88%	5.67%
2015	4.74%	5.48%
2016	4.6%	5.25%
2017	4.53%	5.02%
2018	4.43%	4.8%
2019	4.33%	4.6%
2020	4.28%	4.42%
2021	4.19%	4.22%
2022	4.11%	4.05%
2023	3.99%	3.89%